SHFE tin under pressure and oscillating, weak supply and demand waiting for macro breakthrough [SMM tin midday review]

As of the midday session today, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2509) was reported at 265,740 yuan/mt, down 0.75% from the previous settlement price. During the Asian trading session, LME tin contracts traded within the range of $33,140-33,450/mt, slightly down 0.19% from the previous closing price, maintaining a sideways movement.

The supply of tin ore in Yunnan remains tight, coupled with hindered transportation during the rainy season in Myanmar, resulting in low raw material inventory levels at domestic smelters. Some enterprises have continued maintenance and production cuts, and the tight spot market circulation supports smelters in refusing to budge on prices. Loose expectations weigh: The market expects that the resumption of tin ore production in Q4 will be substantially implemented;

The US Fed maintained interest rates unchanged last night, but internal divisions over interest rate cuts in September have intensified. The US dollar index jumped initially and then pulled back, providing temporary relief for the non-ferrous metals sector. However, Trump set a 10-day ceasefire deadline for the Russia-Ukraine conflict and threatened to impose new tariffs, with geopolitical risks still suppressing bullish sentiment.

The US imposed a 50% tariff on semi-finished copper (effective from August 1st). Although not directly targeting tin, it has sparked concerns within the industry chain about metal export chains. The sharp decline in LME copper and nickel prices indirectly dragged down tin prices.

Short-term (1-2 weeks): SHFE tin is expected to continue moving sideways within the range of 250,000-270,000 yuan/mt. The upside pressure comes from expectations of production resumption in Myanmar and inventory buildup during the off-season, while the downside support stems from the rigid cost of ore and low LME inventory.